Ifyoulookatthe booksthattheyhave publishedatintervalsduringthe course ofthiscampaign, the actualscale ofmigrationthathastakenplace subsequentlyhastendedto be atthe topendoftheirdirestpredictions, andatthe topendoftheirpredictionsforAsiancompositionetc.
Happily, none oftheirgloomypropheciesofsocialdisintegration, racialconflictandotherbalefulresultsfromthishighimmigration, have takenplace. Infact, throughoutthe period, there hasbeena steady, smalldecline inunemploymentduringperiodsoffairlyhighmigration -- a realconundrumforBettsandcompany -- anda steadyimprovementinprosperityandeconomicactivity, despite the obviouspersistence andevenwideningofinequality.
The decisive majorobstacle to theircampaignto stopmigrationstems, however, fromthe realclassformationsthatcurrentlyprevailinurbanAustralia thatI have describedabove. InmodernurbanAustralia, the populationisnowso diverse andmarriage andfamilyformationhasnowsuchanexogamouselement, thatthe objective basisfornativistoppositionto migrationandmulticulturalismofthe Betts-Birrell-Sheehansortisconstantlybeingerodedbythe newsocialcircumstances.
AllAustraliantertiaryinstitutionsoutside the smallestprovincialcentresare nowethnicallyandculturallydiverse andproduce many, manymultiracialcouplesinalllevelsofsociety, fromthe poorestto the veryrichest. Mosturbanschoolsare nowethnicallyandculturallydiverse, withthe same result. The civilisedattitude ofboththe Liberal-votingmanagerialgroup, andthe Labor-votingpublicservice andeducationgroup, amonguniversitygraduates, isnotgoingto change.
The nextlayer, the bankclerksetc, are also ethnicallyandculturallydiverse, andoppositionto migrationissteadilydecliningamongthese people because ofthe diversityofthe group. The bottomsegmentofurbansocietyisoverwhelminglymade upofrecentmigrants. Inone ofherasides, Katharine Bettsremarksthat, fromherpointofview, the groupthatshe foundinheroldopinionpollswho hadthe highestfigure ofsupportformigrationandmulticulturalism, were thatdogged, hard-core, pro-migrationgroup, NESBmigrantswithuniversitydegrees.
Well, ofcourse, thatgroupisgrowingconstantlyaswell. Inthe realtermsofactuallyevolvingAustraliansociety, manyofthe argumentsofthe anti-migrationlobbyare educatedatavismsandunpleasantshrieksfromthe primevalpast, butwe have to workhard, educate people andcampaignvigorouslyto keepitthatway.
Youhave to handitto the RobertBirrell, MonashUniversitybunch. Theydon'tgive upontheir 25-yearcampaignagainstimmigration, andtheirmore recentcampaignagainstAsianimmigration, whichtheytryto cloakina showofconcernforthe migrantstheyinvestigate. Theyhave justproduceda newstudyaimedathighlightingthe numberofrecentmigrantswho are inpoorsocialgroups. (Article inthe SydneyMorningHerald, September 19, 1998, page 3, byJohnMarsh)
Thisisa slightlynewspinintheirlongcampaignagainstmigration. The lasttime I rememberone oftheirstudiesbeinghighlightedinthe press, theyconcentratedonthe notionofallegedVietnamese ghettosinCabramatta, SydneyandRichmond, Melbourne.
Thisline ofargumentwasrefutedbyotherdemographersandmigrationconsultants, who were able to satisfactorilyestablishthatBirrellandcompanywere wildlyoverstatingthe ghetto angle andthatthe concentrationofIndo-Chinese, forinstance, inCabramatta andRichmondwaslessthan 20 percent.
Obviously, the ghetto argumentwasn'tterriblysuccessfulamongseriouscommentators, althoughithasbeenconsiderablymore successfulinthe spherofurbanmythspreadbypeople suchasPauline HansonandPaulSheehan.
Therefore, Birrellandcompanyhave produceda newstudy, inwhichtheylookforconcentrationsofpoorpeople froma numberofnon-English-speakingbackgrounds, incertainworking-classsuburbsaroundSydney. Whatanamazingdiscovery! Poor, non-English-speakingmigrantstendto be concentratedinpoorerworking-classsuburbs. Gee whiz!
The underlyingbiasofthe MonashCentre forPopulationandUrbanResearchagainstmigrantsandmigrationismade veryclearinBirrell'sreportedcomments, inwhichhe useshis "discoveries" asa chance to once againrepeathislong-standingattacksonmulticulturalismandimmigration.
A fewquestionsmustbe askedaboutBirrell'sstudy. Didhe tryto trackthe Asianandothernon-English-speakingmigrantsalongside, say, a studyofEnglishspeakersofroughtthe same socio-economicgroupinthe same suburbs?
He obviouslygothisidea forselectivelytrackingnon-English-speakersfromthe excellentresearchworkofPhilRaskellwho, formanyyears, hasbeenstudyingthe breakdownofeconomicpowerandincome inSydney, Who isRichandWho isPoor?, anddoingitasone properlyshould, notformigrantsalone butforthe whole population.
Inhisstudies, exactlythe same suburbsthatBirrellmentionsemerge ascentresofpovertyforbothmigrantsandEnglish-speakers. Birrellhasturnedthisnormaldemographicinquiryinto class, income andstatus, into a value-loadedattackonrecentmigrants.
The tendencyofrecentandpoorermigrantsto concentrate inalready-existingpoorerworkingclassareas, isinfactobvious, andhasexistedrightbackto the firstEuropeansettlementinAustralia. Forinstance, fromthe middle ofthe 19thcentury, whenSydneybeganrapidlydevelopingasa bigportcity, the poorestsuburbswere the cityitself, whichhadanenormouspopulationinthose days, Glebe, Chippendale, Ultimo, PyrmontandCamperdown.
Studiesinthose daysshowedthose suburbsto be the areasinhabitedbythe poorestworking-classandevenlumpen-proletarianpeople.
Censusfiguresinthose days, whichlistedoccupations, showeda preponderance oflabourers, domestics, unemployedandsome tradesmeninthose suburbs. Theyalso showeda sharpreligiousimbalance inSydneysuburbs. The poorerworking-classareasthatI've justnamedhada muchhigherpreponderance ofIrishCatholics, around 40 percentofthe population, whereasricherpeople tendedto live inthe outersuburbsofSydney, suchasPetersham, CanterburyandAshfield, andthese suburbswere onlyabout 15 percentIrishCatholic.
The anti-migrantbigotsofthose days, largelyfromthe BritishProtestantuppercrustofthe colony, usedto regardthe predominantlyworking-classIrishCatholicsuburbsascesspoolsofpovertyandiniquity.
FurtheroninIrishhistory, inthe 1950sand 1960s, manyofthe suburbsBirrellmentionshada highproportionofGreek, Italian, PolishandYugoslavmigrants, who intheirtime, were also muchpoorerwhentheyarrived, forthe obviousreasons.
Manystudieswere done inthe 1950sand 1960sshowingthe povertyofthe newerworking-classmigrantsfromEuropeancountries, andthere wasmuchcluckingbythe RobertBirrellsofthe time aboutGreek, Italian, Maltese andYugoslavallegedghettos. The ironyisthatmanyofthe suburbsdiscussionthe 1950sand 1960sinrelationto the olderEuropeanmigrantsare the same suburbsthatBirrelltalksaboutnow.
Allanyofthisunderlinesisthe obviouspointthatthe poorercohortofeverywave ofmigrationtendto endupinthe poorersuburbs.
Assugarcoatingonhisessentiallyracistapproach, BirrellmentionsthattherearemanyAsianmigrantsinSydneywho areaffluentanddo well, andwho liveinsuburbsotherthantheoneshenames, andheimpliesthattheirimmigrationmaybeallright. This, ofcourse, raisestheobviousquestion: ishedemandingthatonlyalreadyaffluentAsiansbeallowedin? Thisseemsto beimpliedinhisattackonfamilyreunionandhighlevelsofmigrationofless-skilledAsians.
CivilisedAustraliansofallethnicandculturalbackgrounds, who havesomesensofAustralianhistory, shouldconsiderthatAustralia hasbeenformostofitsexistencea countryofrapidmassmigration. Thismigrationhasalwaysbeendominatedbypoorerpeoplelookingfora newlifeandbetterchanceina newcountry.
Poorermigrantshavealwaysoutnumberedrichermigrants. This was true of the Irish in the 19th century and the Europeans in the post-war years. I bet Birrell did not conduct a survey among the poor migrants on whom he descended as to whether they preferred being in Australia or in the poorer countries from which they came.
The answers they would give in any such survey are pretty obvious. Mostly, even difficult conditions in Australia are better than the conditions in their countries of origin, and it's this impulse that drives all mass migrations.
Birrell's concern for these poor people can be dismissed as crocodile tears, overlain on a constant and implacable desire to keep out the people from the nether world who he views as threatening the Australian social fabric.
Civilised Australians should mobilise vigorously, as a lot are, in defence of the general policy of keeping Australia's doors reasonably open to migrants from many countries on a non-racist basis, and on a basis that allows poorer people to migrate as well as richer people.