It has a principal importance that in the new information postindustrial world the most important resources are first of all finances and intellect, which may travel very easily from one territory to another, but not the territory with fixed production and people.
That is why the appeal to the people from developed countries, who are capable to organize system of government, had no sense in the nineties: new major resources for development are not attached to a certain territory! Nowadays the effective frontier consists not only in recovery of the society within such a territory but otherwise in isolation within the society with further exemption from its main part of healthy and progressive elements, i.e. people – carriers of finances and intellect.
In such method of frontier the progress of the more developed «frontiering» society goes at expense of degradation of the society on frontier, and the scales of degradation of the society on destruction outgo victory in culture and in progress of the more developed society. As compared with traditional harmonic processes of development, development at expense of a alien degradation has always the character of a «play with negative sum».
Thus, distribution of information technologies has changed on a qualitative level value of resources placing on the top position intellect and finances, which are more mobile nowadays. It has changed the process of cooperation between developed and developing countries: constructive frontier of the last by the latter with the help of direct investments into the real sector has started to climb down to the destructive frontier with the help of exemption of financial and intellectual resources.
Understanding of realias and consequences of such transformation has given birth to the theory of «dead countries»: under influence of the new information imperialism, the developing countries become actually «dead», as they irretrievably loose not only the most important intellectual resources for development but also the possibility to produce them. This leaves nothing in store for them.
1.3. Old technologies «depreciation»
Irreversible lag of the developing countries is creating not only by the reason of «wash» from them of the most valuable under the new conditions resources, and also due to collapse of the usefulness of traditional resources and technologies which these societies dispose. As the most important result of each new level of development of the humanity from the point of view of the practical politics is comparative depreciation of all «old» technologies and products or their appliance as they are distributed.
Depth of such depreciation will be in proportion to the primitiveness of the «old» technologies and to the level of monopolization and competitiveness of the market of such technology products. In accordance with this rule we have a depreciation first of all technologies of the mineral industry because of distribution of the information technologies. First of all this process influences oil, world market of which is liberalized in the most extent.
And as the result of it we have a regular reduction of its price in the world market (in 1999 according to estimations to the level of no more than 8 dollar per barrel) that is followed not so much by the agreement between the USA corporation and the Saudi Arabia but more deeper factor: creation of new information technological lifestyle which has new qualitative level. Such lifestyle has started depreciation of the previous lifestyles by the fact of its appearance.
That is why reduction of prices all over the world for the raw materials and in a broader sense for the products engaging little intellectual work will become a tendency deviation from which will be non- significant fluctuations. In this sense the USA actively placing its not so much ecologically but intellectually «impure», i.e. too simple productions has got a maximal guard from negative consequences of their own technical breakthrough.
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Summing up the above said we may make a list of consequences for new technologies development:
. Exacerbation and acquisition of final – at the same time keeping the existing tendencies – compelling character between:
v developed and the rest countries;
v creating new technological principles by the developed countries
(it is possible that we should use the term «the most developed / advanced countries») and the rest developed countries;
. Insulation, which take place in all countries, of people engaged in information technologies into internal «information community», its concentration in the territory of the developed countries; slow concentration of the «information community» of the world and together with it concentration of the world progress in the «most developed» countries;
. progress termination or its abrupt slowdown (at least technical) beyond the developed countries; social and financial degradation of the developing countries;
. reduction of the number of developed and the most developed countries because of hard competition.
XXVI. Several consequences of markets globalization
2.1. Competition globalization – monopolies globalization
The process of distribution of information technologies is influenced by the process of globalization which is created by the process of distribution of information technologies but which has the same level of importance. Formation of the united world markets at least in the financial sphere and gradual integration of the global markets of different financial instruments into united world market includes into the agenda the question referring to creation of the global monopolies.
The reason of it is very simple: it is impossible to divide a single market.
Well-known examples of market division had either quite a short period of existence, as compared with the term of existence of the domination product, or were based on objective backsets. That made access to a part of competitors to any principally significant element of the market more complicated.
Information technologies reducing transaction expenses to minimum and also an «entrance fee» to the global financial markets destroy these backsets, eliminating any possibilities for any stable part of these markets. Term of existence of the dominating product – information – is going down to zero that makes practically impossible even temporal division of these markets.
In the result of it creation of global monopolies has got two simultaneous directions:
Formation of global monopolies in the global markets of separate financial instruments;
Formation of the united global monopoly in the result of integration of the said markets (reduction of «price for transformation» from one market to another down to a very small level).
The American government plays the role of the latter monopoly as it has very close contacts with the based in the territory of the USA transnational corporations including financial most of which due to the specifics of their activity do not need any organizational formation.
The matter may have the following form: the world policy will recently terminates its existence on the state level, transforming, on one part, to the national level of global groups of capitals and technologies and on the other part – to the internal level of political life of the country controlling over the major part of these capitals and technologies.
(In 1997 during the progress of the proamerican «team of young reformers», the Russian lobbyists were greatly amazed at finding out that the sphere of the most effective lobbying of several matters in the internal Russian politics had transformed from the Governmental level and the level of the President's Administration to the level of the Congress and the USA administration. In the USSR all matters having principal importance referring to development of the republics or regions should be solved not by their own authorities but by the curators of the corresponding directions in Moscow – in the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and in the Council of Ministers.)
2.2. «Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism
In 1999 the rest tow parts of the process of monopoly globalization will elapse against the most important event of the century – commencement of the process for euro integration. Commencement of European currency integration will be the first real after establishment in the beginning nineties of the total world financial crisis attempt which has chances to become a success to depth regional integration up to the level which will dominate over global integration.
Integration of «euro» will reduce foreign currency reserves of banking systems of the world (firstly of Europe) and will release from them a great amount of dollars (only in China about tens milliards).
Besides, settlements at European market of energy carriers are made in dollars. Transformation of these settlements into euro will be after integration of the latter simply a matter of time, let it even be long, but it will release several tens of milliard dollars.
At last purchasing capacity of the maximum European banknote in 500 euros will be higher of the purchasing capacity of the maximum banknote of the USA denominated in 100 dollars. It will transfer into euro the major part of the large sums in cash in Europe, and not only in the countries of the currency union but also in the neighboring countries, - also tens of milliard dollars.
Apparent non-solicitude of the «Eurozone» leaders of the future of such dollars carries an extremely destructive character of inactivity not only for the USA but also for the rest of the world. Actually this inactivity provokes the USA to strengthen the process of further destabilization of the financial system of the world.
European dollars and China dollars should be absorbed by other countries not to destabilize the USA on their coming back to the country. Such absorbation of the world reserve currency to a great extent happens only under the conditions of a very deep economic destabilization. Such extent may be only compared with its release under the process of euro integration.
Thus, egoistic indifference of Europeans to welfare of the main global competitor – the USA – in a strategic plan provokes the latter to make destructive steps in respect of not only the eurozone economic power of which is protected from a short-term influence but in respect of the third parties, i.e. countries which are less stable and due to this reason these countries are a favorable potential recipient of the releasing dollars.
The most threatened regions are the Latin America (first of all it is Brazil) and several countries of the South-Eastern Asia and may be China.
2.3. Global financial competition outlook: technical progress slowdown
Attempt to carry out sterilization of dollars through disorganization of national economic system can not be the decision for a problem even if such method allows to postpone the decision of the problem despite of its being very expensive.
There are two final and real variants to solve the problem:
First – carrying out of long-term investments of the releasing dollars into large projects in the zones of mutual influence of the USA and Europe (for example: reconstruction of the Transsib aimed at establishment of the united transport European-Asian line «London-Tokio»). As Russia still remains under political influence of the USA and under economic influence of Europe, sterilization of the extra dollars of the world in the territory of Russia will be for the USA an exchange of a part of its geopolitical influence to the short-term and medium-term economic safety.
This variant demands for not only constructive approach to the problem (for example: it corresponds to the demands of the overheating economy of Japan) but also consent of the Russian society for its deep healthening or at least readiness for it.
The second variant – taking a pause which may be gained after dollar runoff to the destabilizing «second economics» of the world for organization of the head-on competitive collision with the eurozone, first premonition of which could be found with non-united European economy in the September, 1992, and with only starting its trip to integration economy of the South-Eastern Asia in the second half of the 1997 year.
This scheme allows the USA to take the strategic initiative and make its own choice of time, sphere and the character for this collision that taking into consideration factor of abruptness gives the USA an advantage.
At static consideration of outlook for such collision based on comparison of the already existing resources, Europe has advantageous chances. But as compared on the point of view of dynamics taking into consideration level of expenses, increasing role of newest technologies and actually «natural» (after disintegration of the USSR) monopoly of the USA on holding its holding and development performed with taking into consideration cardinal differences of the American and European bureaucracy (the first one – creates, the second – exists) makes us to make our choice in favor of the USA if we have a long-term outlook for future.
Influence of «dynamic» factors of the technological quality and bureaucracy on the modern competition may be indirectly seen comparison of losses borne by European and American capitals in Russia and South-Eastern Asia: in both cases losses of Europeans were greater than that of the Americans from all points of view. Besides, if in the USA losses were borne only by structures, which do not make the main part of the national economy, with high risk possibility, but in Europe – losses were borne by the banks making the basic part of its banking system.
There is no reason to consider that in the nearest years proportion of effectiveness of two financial and governmental systems will change greatly.
Besides, the USA will always be able to carry out discrimination in this or that form of at least a cash part of dollars which are outside the USA. It may be performed for example under the slogan of struggle with international crime: first of all, this thesis is a standard method using by the USA in its international competitiveness, and then – it is true: turnover of the major part of the US dollars outside the territory of the USA in this or that form is connected with law violation, and, thus, the USA progress is based to a certain extent on lurking stimulation of the criminal activity outside the USA.
Of cause, such discrimination will abruptly limit the most important financial part of the economic power of the USA – usage of their national currency as an international reserve currency and that is why it may be used only as «the last means».
But in any case not depending on the result of the global financial confrontation between the USA and European Currency Union it will lead to the unfavorable event for the humanity: cardinal slowdown of the China economic development which may be followed by its destabilization, regress and even disintegration.
China mainly develops as an export oriented country integrated into the markets of Europe and the USA. Collision will reduce purchasing capacity of the outgoing party and correspondingly will reduce its import including from China. And this collision won’t depend on the result of collision between Europe and the USA.
China will hardly bear such an abrupt reduction in its export, which will be the catalyst of all its internal problems, which are now in an inchoative stage. Destabilization of China will be such an event that will be able up to 2015 year set the whole world economy in chaos (except the winner: the USA or the eurozone).
Truly speaking, victory of the latter will be a Pyrrhic victory: leaving behind the competitors and together with them the whole world for a generation (of people and main technologies), it will loose the main sale markets for its products that will slowdown its own development.
In that case we will have a losing or at least conservation of the most advanced technologies: in the event of eurozone victory – because it does not know how to create them, and in the event of the USA victory – because of abrupt reduction of the sale markets and realization of these technologies, that will weaken in cardinal way stimulus for their development an will reduce resources engaged for such purposes.
Thus, transformation of disagreement between the eurozone and the USA connected with integration of euro and release of the extra dollars to the level of negative competition will be followed by the possibility of slowdown of the development of the whole mankind.
III. Global regulation for global competition
3.1. What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»?
Possibility of slowdown of the development of general human technical progress as it was shown in the previous paragraph is a minor point of the general rule: development may have only total character. Any attempt to force back the competitors disrupt the development making it narrower and poor and increasing the level of monopolization through reduction of sale markets to the products of the winner, and leads, thus, to the total slowdown of the development and stagnation.