2000 Presidential Race Essay, Research Paper
Jason Bankston
November 6, 2000
Government Research Project
ALABAMA
Recent polls show Bush as leading by 46% with Gore at 38%. Alabama has a strong Republican voting history. Sixty percent of Alabamans view themselves as conservatives. Alabama has few large cities that attract minorities and other groups that would vote Democratic. Bush has a solid win in this state. Nine electoral votes for Bush.
ALASKA
In Alaska, Bush leads with a 52% margin to Gore s 28%. Like Alabama, Alaska has few large cities that attract Democratic votes. What Alaska does have, however, are oil fields which attract big money and Republican votes. Forty-eight percent of Alaskans show an unfavorable opinion toward Al Gore. Bush has a solid victory in Alaska. Three electoral votes for Bush.
ARKANSAS
Bush leads with a narrow margin of 47% to Gore s 45%. However, Arkansas has a slight Democratic voting history. Since it is by such a narrow margin, there is a chance that Gore could regain the lead before Tuesday. But for the moment, Bush is the likely victor. Six electoral votes for Bush.
ARIZONA
With Bush leading the race with 49% to Gore s 37%. Bush is the likely winner in Arizona. Arizona has a marginal Republican voting history. The margin between favorable and unfavorable opinions for Gore (only 4%) is relatively small. While Bush s margin is much larger (15%). In a state with 53% of the people consider themselves conservatives, Bush will likely take the state. Eight electoral votes for Bush.
CALIFORNIA
Gore currently leads California 44% to 41%. In a state with two very large cities, California will generate a large number of Democratic votes. Also, many people in the state are concerned with the environment and will go towards Gore s environmental policy. This is a very tight race. Gore will mostly likely win this state. Fifty-four electoral votes for Bush.
COLORADO
Most polls show Bush as the leader of Colorado with 49% to Gore s 33%. In a state where 56% of the likely voters consider themselves Republicans, the Texas Governor will likely win. Eight electoral votes for Bush.
CONNECTICUT
In a state where more people are adamantly anti-Bush, Gore will likely take the victory with 46% of the vote. This small, but densely populated area, would tend to attract more Democratically oriented votes. In this race, Gore will probably triumph. Eight electoral votes for Gore.
DELAWARE
This is another very close race. Gore leads with 44% to Bush s 43%. Delaware has also shown a very subtle history of voting Democratic. Fewer people show a negative opinion of Gore, than do those that have negative opinions of Bush. Although it is a very close race, Gore will be the likely winner. Three electoral votes for Gore.
FLORIDA
In Florida, Bush leads by a very narrow margin. He holds 47% over Gore s 45%. Since it is such a close race, it is important to look at the state s voting history. The Orange State has shown a moderately strong history of voting Republican. With the numbers being so close, it is hard to accurately judge the likely winner, however, Bush will probably win this state. Twenty-five electoral votes for Bush.
GEORGIA
In a state made up of 55% Conservatives, Bush is carrying the lead with 50% to Gore s 40%. Georgia has shown a history of voting moderately conservative. Georgia s population is made up of a large number of rural farming people. They will be more tempted to go for Bush s tax plan (especially the abomination of the death tax). Bush has a solid win in Georgia. Thirteen electoral votes for Bush.
HAWAII
Hawaii will be a solid Gore victory. Gore leads with 52% to Bush s 32%. Four electoral votes for Gore.
IDAHO
Idaho will be a landslide victory for Bush. He carries 62% to Gore s 24%. Idaho has a history of voting solidly Republican. In this state largely made up of farmers, its citizens will agree more so with Bush s Republican ideals. The number one thing they have to benefit from Bush s election would be the elimination of the estate tax. Bush will definitely win this state. Four electoral votes for Bush.
ILLINOIS
Illinois is a tough state to judge. Illinois has demonstrated a mild history for voting Democratic. However, a large majority of the voters consider themselves Conservatives. Currently Gores carries a four point lead over Bush. In a state with a large and diverse city as Chicago, more Democratic votes would be expected. Gore will likely win this race. Twenty-two electoral votes for Gore.
INDIANA
Indiana should be a solid win for Bush. This state has a reputation for voting more conservatively than most. With such a wide gap between the candidates percentages (52 to 32), it would take severe measures to reverse the outcome of this race. Triumph for Bush. Twelve electoral votes for Bush.
IOWA
Bush should take home the Iowa victory. However, this is a very close race (46% to 42%). In a state largely based on agriculture, its citizens stand to benefit most from Bush s policies (especially his tax policy). Even with such a narrow margin, Bush will be the most likely choice in Iowa. Seven electoral votes for Bush.
KANSAS
Bush carries Kansas with a vote of 51% to Gore s 32%. Kansas has a strong history of voting Republican, and most voters consider themselves Conservatives. Without a doubt, Bush will win this state. Six electoral votes for Bush.
KENTUCKY
In the state of Kentucky, Bush should have no trouble winning. He carries a solid majority (48% to 39%). Kentucky carries a slightly conservative voting record, and more than half of its citizens would call themselves Republicans. It should not be a challenge for Bush to win this state. Eight electoral votes for Bush.
LOUISIANA
Bush is leading the state of Louisiana by a very small margin. He has 48% to the Vice President s 41%. Louisiana has demonstrated the pattern of voting very close to the middle of the road. However, 64% of its people considered themselves largely conservative. Although it is such a close race, Bush should not have much trouble taking Louisiana. Nine electoral votes for Bush.
MAINE
In Maine there is another very close race with Bush leading Gore 43% to 39%. Like many other states, Maine has shown a history of voting slightly liberal, while most citizens consider themselves Conservatives. There is a chance that Gore take the lead, but Bush will probably take this state. Four electoral votes for Bush.
MARYLAND
This state will be a win for Gore. He is currently carrying a 47% majority. In Maryland Bush s disapproval rating is actually higher that his approval rating. This state has shown a mild history for voting for Democratic candidates, so Gore should win. Ten electoral votes for Gore.
MASSACHUSETTS
This state is an easy victory for Gore. He leads 49% to Bush s 28%. The state has shown a strong style of voting for the Democratic candidate. And, most of the people show a strong dislike for Bush. Leading with such a large gap, it is extremely unlikely that Bush will gain the majority. Twelve electoral votes for Gore.
MICHIGAN
Michigan is a toss up. It is so close (Bush 45%, Gore 44%) that anything could happen before Tuesday. Some campaigning in this state could easily turn these eighteen electoral votes around. However, most of the campaigning will probably occur in California where there are many more votes up for grabs. For the moment, Bush is the most likely winner in Michigan. Eighteen electoral votes for Bush.
MINNESOTA
With the race running neck and neck, a definitive winning candidate is hard to choose. The most recent poll shows the two candidates tied perfectly with 38% each. History has shown Minnesota to have a relatively strong Democratic voting record. Therefore, it would not be unwise to say that Gore will get most of the 22% undecided votes. Ten electoral votes for Gore.
MISSISSIPPI
Mississippi is a very strong Republican state. Bush is currently leading the Vice President 48% to 39%. A very large percentage of its citizens consider themselves Conservative and Mississippi has demonstrated a long history of voting Republican. The winner in this state will be Bush. Seven electoral votes for Bush.
MISSOURI
In Missouri, although it is a tight race, Bush carries the lead 47% to Gore s 42%. Even though Missouri has demonstrated a shallow Democratic voting style, most people of this state view themselves as Conservatives. Bush should win Missouri. Eleven electoral votes for Bush.
MONTANA
Bush is expected to win Montana. A large number of people in this state consider themselves to be Republican, and Montana has a strong reputation for voting conservatively. With a lot of farmers in Montana, people will like Bush s plan for the elimination of the estate tax and his other plans for the future of agriculture. Montana belongs to Bush. Three electoral votes for Bush.
NEBRASKA
Bush will take Nebraska. With a large number of farming acres and big money mines and steel mills, its citizens have a lot to gain from Bush s ideas. This would explain the wide gap between Bush s 51% and Gore s 31%. With this wide margin, it will be hard, if not impossible, for Gore to gain the majority. Five electoral votes for Bush.
NEVADA
In a strong Republican state, Bush carries the lead with 49% to 37%. Nevada has shown a history of voting Republican and a large number of its citizens consider themselves conservative. Even in this fairly close race, Bush is most likely to prevail. Four electoral votes for Bush.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
It would be expected that Bush be victorious in New Hampshire. He currently is leading Gore 46 to 38%. New Hampshire has shown in its past to vote moderately conservative. A solid number of its citizens call themselves Republican. Despite closeness of this race, it would be safe to assume Bush as the winner of New Hampshire. Four electoral votes for Bush.
NEW JERSEY
Gore currently leads Bush here by 45 to 39%. New Jersey had demonstrated in its past to be a very moderate state. Since Gore s approval rating it substantially higher than his disapproval rating, and since more people disapprove of Bush than approve, Gore should win this state. Fifteen electoral votes for Gore.
NEW MEXICO
Despite the narrow margin, Bush will probably beat Gore in New Mexico. New Mexico has in the past shown itself to be almost moderate in its voting style. However, almost half of its voters would consider themselves conservative. Even in this close race, Bush should triumph. Five electoral votes for Bush.
NEW YORK
Gore is leading New York with a strong margin of 50 to 36%. It would take nothing short of a miracle to save Bush in this election. New York has been a strong Democratic state for some time. Not only does Bush have very few votes, he also has a very strong disapproval rating in this state. Gore will be victorious. Thirty-three electoral votes for Gore.
NORTH CAROLINA
In this strong Republican state, Governor Bush carries the lead with 50% to Gore s 40%. North Carolina has demonstrated a strong history of Republican votes, and many of its citizens consider themselves Republican. In North Carolina, Bush should take home the votes. Fourteen electoral votes for Bush.
NORTH DAKOTA
In this rural state where well over half of its people considered themselves Republicans, Bush leads with 49% to Gore s 34%. North Dakota has demonstrated a large number of Conservative votes in the past. Bush should have no trouble taking this state. Three electoral votes for Bush.
OHIO
Another reliable win for Bush. He is currently leading Al Gore with 48% of the vote to Gore s 39%. In this state, over half of the people consider themselves Conservative. With a mild Republican voting history, Bush should be able to take this state. Twenty-one electoral votes for Bush.
OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma is a very strong Republican state in which Bush carries the lead with 52% to Gore s 34%. Some 64% of its people call themselves conservatives, and historically Oklahoma has voted very conservatively. Therefore, this should be an easy solid win for Bush. Eight electoral votes for Bush.
OREGON
Bush currently leads the Oregon race with 43% to Gore s 38%. Since this is such a narrow margin, and since Oregon has previously picked Democratic candidates, Gore could probable win this state with some campaigning. However, that should not be expected to happen as there are only seven electoral votes in this state. At this moment, Bush will be the victor. Seven electoral votes for Bush.
PENNSYLVANIA
In a state previously known for liberal choices, Bush is ironically leading with 47% to Gore s 43%. Since this is such a close race and there are so many votes up for grabs, it would not be unexpected to see Gore come take this state. However, Bush will probably maintain his majority. Twenty-three electoral votes for Bush.
RHODE ISLAND
In this largely Liberal state, Gore should have no trouble accomplishing a win. He currently leading Bush 49% to 30%. With a strong past of liberal votes, this state holds strongly to Gore s ideas and beliefs. This state should be a relatively simple victory for Gore. Four electoral votes for Gore.
SOUTH CAROLINA
In South Carolina, Bush will easily take the winner s seat. Currently his 51% is beating Vice President Gore s 35%. In this state of strong Republican decisions and strong Republican people, there is little room to doubt the outcome. South Carolina belongs to Bush. Eight electoral votes for Bush.
SOUTH DAKOTA
In this largely rural state, Bush carries a descent majority. Known for making Republican decisions, South Dakota will benefit from Bush s tax plan and plan for agriculture. Bush will win this race. Six electoral votes for Bush.
TENNESSEE
Despite Gore s home state advantage in Tennessee, Bush is very narrowly leading him 45% to 44%. It would normally be expected for Gore to do much better in his home state, however, Tennessee is a fairly Republican state. Vice President Gore is fairly unrepublican. It is very close, but for the moment it would have to be said that Bush be the projected winner. Eleven electoral votes for Bush.
TEXAS
Simply stated: Bush will win. He currently leads his home state with a 59% majority over Gore s 30%. Not only is Texas a strong Republican state, Bush also gets the home state advantage. As mentioned previously, Bush will win. Thirty-two electoral votes for Bush.
UTAH
This is an unquestionable victory for Bush. He currently holds 62% of the popular vote. This state has an extremely strong record of Republican voting habits, and 63% of its citizens consider themselves Conservatives. Bush will win this state by a landslide. Five electoral votes for Bush.
VERMONT
Vermont is a state known well for liberal decisions. Therefore, it is not surprising to find Gore beating Bush 45% to 39%. There will not be much to change the outcome of this race and due to the low number of electoral votes, it can be assumed that little or no campaigning will be done in Vermont. This state belongs to Gore. Three electoral votes for Gore.
VIRGINIA
In this strong Republican state, Bush leads Gore s 40% with a 50% popular vote. The race is distanced enough that it is unlikely that much will influence it. The likely choice of Virginia will be Bush. Thirteen electoral votes for Bush.
WASHINGTON
Currently Bush leads the Washington race by 1%. However, Washington has shown very Democratic voting orientation in the past, and it would be very easy for Gore to take this victory.
But since the polling data is only one day old, it will probably be fairly accurate come Tuesday. Bush should win this state. Eleven electoral votes for Bush.
WEST VIRGINIA
The current lead in West Virginia is held by Governor Bush. Despite West Virginia s Democratic voting history, it appears that the Republican candidate has a hold on this state. This may be due to the fact that the gap between approval and disapproval ratings is much higher with Bush than it is with Gore. Bush will take this state. Five electoral votes for Bush.
WISCONSIN
Bush takes the current lead in Wisconsin with 45% to Gore s 41%. In a state known for fairly moderate votes, the race is a very close one. Even in this close race, since Bush carries the largest percentage of popular votes, he will probably maintain the lead through Tuesday. Bush will likely win this state. Eleven electoral votes for Bush.
WYOMING
Bush can count on Wyoming as another landslide victory. In this state which has been known for heavy Republican votes, people (61% call themselves conservative) will most definitely vote for Bush. There is very little, if nothing, that Gore can do to change this. Open and shut case. There is no disputing Governor Bush s victory in this state. Three electoral votes for Bush.
Conclustion
Each state s election has shown a tendency to be very, very close. However, Governor Bush seems to win many of these narrow-margin races. He gets a total of 414 electoral votes and his opponent, Al Gore, receives only 124 electoral votes. Many of the very close state-by-state elections may end up being incorrect. Based on the most recent polls available, Bush was winning, however slightly, at the time. In a race this close, the only time that it is safe to declare a winner is after the election. At this time the most likely winner of this Presidential Campaign will be Governor George W. Bush.