tensions with Russia.
Along with wreaking havoc on the nuclear arms reduction process the US
abrogation of the ABM Treaty could dangerously undermine the non-proliferation
regime. Under the NPT the five declared nuclear weapon states?China, France,
Russia, The United Kingdom, and the United States?agreed to pursue nuclear
disarmament. This is a major concern because the US has been attempting to
persuade China, North Korea, India, and Pakistan to ratify their testing of
nuclear weapons.
In essence if the US builds a national missile defense system, new threats
will arise and the post-Cold War structure for controlling nuclear and missile
technology and weapons will be undone. Prospects for mutual, cooperative steps
to reduce nuclear dangers outside the treaty process would also diminish
sharply.
The cost of the national missile defense is an overwhelmingly difficult issue
for the American people. Since 1983, the US has spent $69 billion and yet no
system has ever been fielded. Almost all of the money has gone towards the
research and development of potential systems, rather to their production. In
May 2000, the Congressional Budget Office reported that the Clinton?s
Administration?s proposal would cost almost $30 billion for just its first
phase and $60 billion for phases thereafter.
The main reason for the Clinton Administration to propose a ?limited?
national defense was to cut cost. They understood why the Strategic Defense
Initiative was shut down, and wanted to avoid such a drop. Despite the Clinton
Administration?s efforts, the Pentagon generally tends to underestimate
development and acquisition costs by 15 to 20 percent. In looking at national
missile defense, past estimates have been underestimated by as much as 30
percent.
Then the issue arises of cost effectiveness. The US spends more annually on
missile defense than the estimated total military budgets of North Korea and
Iraq combined. Even so North Korea can be expected to afford technologies that
may render the initial phase of US defense ineffective. This is true no matter
how large a defense system the United States builds. Offense is always cheaper
than defense.
The fourth and final criterion is the threat that the US has from other
countries deploying nuclear missile attacks. Russia maintains 2,000 strategic
nuclear warheads on high alert, together capable of destroying the United States
in under an hour. No plausible missile defense could defend such an attack. The
national missile defense proposed is not designed to counter such an attack;
instead it is designed to stop a threat by a few tens of warheads. Such an
attack could come from North Korea, Iran, and Iraq, or from an inadvertent
launch by Russia or China.
Currently Iran and Iraq are not in the position to launch such efforts. North
Korea has willingly agreed to freeze its missile flight test program while
discussions with the United States continue. In addition Argentina and Brazil
were competitively pursuing nuclear weapons in the late 1980?s and early 1990?s.
However, diplomatic persuasion led both countries to end their search.
Economic factors also have reduced the threat from many countries. During the
Gulf War the Allies bombed the Iraqi oil refineries, which cut their national
revenue, causing less nuclear development.
The biggest concern of foreign threat is the new formation of ?rogue?
nations. The presumption is that these nations are irrational. They will develop
missiles capable of hitting the United States and use them despite the almost
certain devastating consequences. A January 19, 2000 statement by US Deputy
Secretary of Defense John Hamre explains why North Korea is a threat:
North Korea is a legitimate source of worry about a surprise missile attack,
since it has invested heavily in developing a long-range missile capability,
even though no on is threatening it and even while many of its people are
starving. There is no rational reason why North Korea, with the economic straits
that they are in, would choose such a provocative thing to do. This is a country
that doesn?t care about the opinion of the international community and
therefore must be judged capable of attacking the United States unprovoked.
With this view, the United States has little choice of how to deal with North
Korea. It is a dictatorship with a large army. It also is a leading concern in
the proliferation of nuclear warheads because it exports missiles. Its
leadership is isolated and difficult to work with. It has engaged in terrorist
activities, and it frequently violates minor military provocations against South
Korea. In this light, the US must build a national missile defense.
Another threat addressed by Clinton?s Administration is a terrorist?s
ransom. If the leader of a country blackmailed the US by aiming a nuclear
missile at a US city, the US would have to make a decision about the true
capability. Is it a bluff or not? They would have to comply or be ready to
launch their own defense. For example, the question arises if the US would have
attacked Iraq if Saddam Hussein had had a nuclear-tipped missile. To avoid this
contingency, the argument is that the US should build a ?limited? nationwide
missile defense.
In looking at the broader perspective of threats, the United States is a very
fortunately country. We have huge oceans on either side so there are few threats
to its soil. This long distance from threatening countries focuses the threats
that the United States will encounter to missiles. The Clinton Administration
contends that while dangers exist within the boarders like the bombing at the
World Trade Center and Oklahoma City, the US has interests and allies around the
globe. In addition, US security as a whole depends not only on military force,
but also on financial ties, trade relations, and international cooperation. The
US is inextricably linked to the global economy.
For these reasons, the Clinton Administration proposed a ?limited?
national missile defense system. Yet, as a closer look was given to these four
main criteria, it became apparent that the US is not currently ready for such a
system. The consequences and uncertainties in all four of these factors played a
huge role in the decision process. On September 1, 2000, President Clinton
announced that he would delay the national missile defense. He urged the US
Armed Forces to continue in their develop of new technologies that might make
such an advancement possible, but ultimately reserved the national missile
defense?s future for the next President. Whether Al Gore or George Bush
officially wins this next election, one will most likely decide the fate of the
national missile defense. One will have to weigh the evidence and conclusions
drawn by these three tests and these four criteria.
Countermeasures
Countermeasures to a nuclear attack on the United States have been a major
focus of the United States for nearly 40 years. In many cases the suspected ICBM?s
and other traditional methods may not be used in a nuclear attack on the US. As
early as 1964 the US was reportedly was spending 300-400 million dollars on
countermeasures. The Union of Concern Scientists has done an exhaustive study on
countermeasures against ground based, terminal phased missile defense systems.
?Countermeasures? can be summarized in two main claims:
1) ?Simple? countermeasures will defeat the US National Missile Defense
system in its presently proposed configuration.
2) Any rouge state that could mobilize the human and technological resources
to develop a nuclear tipped long-ranged ballistic missile would have no
difficulty in developing and deploying.
Before discussing the technical issues and countermeasures, it is important
to note that critics of ?Countermeasures? state that the NMD configuration
is not frozen in its current design features. There argument is that no major
weapon system is ever static: it grows and evolves from its original base line
configuration in response to its growth of threats. Thus, from their point of
view, it is reasonable to assume that the US designers will react to the new
challenging countermeasures.
When discussing the vulnerability of the United States and ?simple?
countermeasures, ?simple? is the chosen word because the implementation of
such a measure because of the relative easiness there is when comparing to
building an ICBM with a nuclear warhead. In short, to build an ICBM there must
exist highly experience scientists and engineers all with vast abilities. If
this is the case and such technicians are available, then the progression to
implementation would in fact be simple.
?Countermeasures? discusses many different ways in which missiles could
bypass our defense system and hit US soil. These different methods are debated
frequently. Some say that they are feasible today, yet others argue that most if
not all are not realistic today. In any case, this exhaustive study does not
include certain more secretive ways of targeting the United States with nuclear
warheads. For instance, if countries were to attack the United States by way of
the United States Postal Service or some other mail carrier. If a warhead can be
made, certainly it can be smuggled into the US borders. Also, it could be
transported via ship cargo. As mentioned before, the World Trade Center and
Oklahoma City bombing never should have happened. These incidents should not
have been possible. Yet, they did occur. They did take the lives of innocent
Americans. So what is to be done? How can the United States defend against such
a childish and cowardly act?
In March 1995, US Customs agents in Miami launched a two-year undercover
investigation reaching into high-level official circles in Russia, Bulgaria and
Lithuania. It would become the first credible case of a scenario to smuggle
tactical nuclear weapons into the United States. Although the undercover
officials obtained many arms, no nuclear weapons could be brought back because
U.S. national security policy prohibits any sting operation that might bring
nuclear devices or material onto American soil. In the end, evidence was
provided to the US government that such dealings could, in fact, occur.
The source of these cowardly attacks will most likely be from former Soviet
Union missiles. During the political break up into individual nations, much
conflict arose that allowed for the stealing of nuclear weapons and equipment.
Chris Wallace, Chief Correspondent of ?20/20? interviewed a black market
nuclear arms dealer, Tatiana, for Primetime Live television. In the interview
goes as follows:
Chris Wallace: So if I come to Moscow and I have enough money, what can I
buy?
Tatiana: Everything.
Chris Wallace: Everything? Uranium?
Tatiana: No problem.
Chris Wallace: Plutonium?
Tatiana: Yes
Chris Wallace: Nuclear Triggers?
Tatiana: No trouble. Without any problem.
Chris Wallace: You?re saying that I can buy the materials.
Tatiana: In order to do good bombs. Yes.
This interview shows the terrible resources available in Russia. It can
reasonably be assumed that such areas of the world are not only limited to
Russia. Some say that Germany is another possibility. Despite how many areas
provide such resources, one would be enough to cause serious problems to the
United States. If one thing is certain, merely one nuclear warhead can cause
catastrophic damage.
So then what is the United States to do? How can they stop such
countermeasures to the national defense? Is it possible? It is terribly
difficult to find answers to such a difficult question. No American politician
wants to address such a problem because there seems to be no solution. No one
wants to be the bearer of bad news. It is essentially an unspoken area.
Regardless of possible countermeasures, the United States seems to feel that
some type of National Missile Defense is necessary. How much or how little is
still a question to be answered. Advocates of a new NMD would argue that the
lives of the American people are at stake and therefore little concern should be
given to a price. They see an American dream that should be preserved and an
American dominance that should continue as the global leader in the pursuance of
active defense. There are still those however, who seem to see the practicality
of a NMD. They reflect upon the history of missile defense systems and see
previous failed versions and the growing costs of such new initiatives. They
know the test results of the first three Pentagon tests and doubt the highly
sophisticated technology involved in the process. They may also even know the
treaties that the United States has signed, and in some cases drafted, and the
US can only continue with new programs if they rewrite these treaties or back
out of them. In any case, it will take rigorous meetings to maintain balance and
control of the world?s pursuance in similar defensive and offensive
strategies. These critics also see the countermeasures and loopholes available
to those who really want to attack the United States. So these two sides are to
be weighed by the next President of the United States.
Bibliography
Biden, Senator Joseph R. Jr. The Disturbing Trend of Judicial Imperialism and
The Unreliability of a National Missile Defense System. ?A Choice for the
Generations: Presidential Election 2000.? August 2000.
Countermeasures: A Technical Evaluation of the Operational Effectiveness of
the Planned US National Missile Defense System. Union of Concerned Scientists.
MIT Studies Program: April 2000.
Rubin, Uzi. ?Comments on the UCS Report on Countermeasures.? July 2000.
Ruppe, David. ?Key Missile Defense Test Under Way.? http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/world/DailyNews/missile_000707.html.
ABC News Internet Ventures: July 7, 2000.
?Russian Nuclear Smuggling.? Trade and Environment Database. http://www.american.edu/TED/NUKESMUG.HTM.
Case Number 271, Case Mnumonic: NUKESMUG, Case Name: Russian Nuclear Smuggling.
American University: 2000.
Wilkening, Dean A. ?How Much Ballistic Missile Defense Is Too Much??
CISAC: October 1998.
Young, Stephen W. Pushing the Limits: The Decision on National Missile
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